Midterms 2026 — Live Poll Tracker

New · PW 2026 Forecast Who wins the House and Senate? Our fundamentals-first model — backtested against the last two midterms — runs 20,000 simulations a day and publishes control odds for both chambers, straight. See the odds →

Patriot Watch's running average for the 2026 midterms: every competitive Senate and Governor race, the House battlegrounds, the generic congressional ballot, and presidential approval. Averages are computed from public polls and refreshed through the day. Last updated 2026-10-01.

Generic ballot: D +8.3 (41 polls — polls through 2026-09-28) · Presidential approval: net -23.0 (6 polls — polls through 2026-09-27)

Senate races (11)

Alaska Senate

Mary Peltola vs Dan Sullivan — Mary Peltola +1.0

4 polls from 3 pollsters · latest: Mary Peltola 46% · Dan Sullivan 49% (co/efficient, 2026-09-17)

Maine Senate

Troy Jackson vs Susan Collins — Troy Jackson +1.9

6 polls from 6 pollsters · latest: Susan Collins 49% · Troy Jackson 46% (The New York Times/Siena University, 2026-09-22)

Minnesota Senate

Peggy Flanagan vs Michele Tafoya — Peggy Flanagan +2.1

3 polls from 2 pollsters · latest: Peggy Flanagan 42% · Michele Tafoya 42% (SurveyUSA, 2026-09-14)

Iowa Senate

Ashley Hinson vs Josh Turek — Josh Turek +2.2

7 polls from 5 pollsters · latest: Ashley Hinson 42% · Josh Turek 50% (Marist University, 2026-09-20)

Texas Senate

James Talarico vs Ken Paxton — James Talarico +2.9

10 polls from 8 pollsters · latest: James Talarico 49% · Ken Paxton 45% (Slingshot Strategies, 2026-09-22)

Michigan Senate

Abdul El-Sayed vs Mike Rogers — Abdul El-Sayed +3.4

15 polls from 14 pollsters · latest: Abdul El-Sayed 50% · Mike Rogers 50% (co/efficient, 2026-09-23)

Florida Senate

Ashley Moody vs Angie Nixon — Ashley Moody +4.3

6 polls from 5 pollsters · latest: Ashley Moody 48% · Angie Nixon 47% (Change Research, 2026-09-27)

Ohio Senate

Sherrod Brown vs Jon Husted — Sherrod Brown +4.7

7 polls from 7 pollsters · latest: Sherrod Brown 51% · Jon Husted 43% (Marist University, 2026-09-27)

New Hampshire Senate

Chris Pappas vs John Sununu — Chris Pappas +6.2

5 polls from 4 pollsters · latest: Chris Pappas 50% · John Sununu 45% (The New York Times/Siena University, 2026-09-22)

North Carolina Senate

Roy Cooper vs Michael Whatley — Roy Cooper +8.9

9 polls from 6 pollsters · latest: Roy Cooper 48.4% · Michael Whatley 42.5% (InsiderAdvantage, 2026-09-17)

Georgia Senate

Jon Ossoff vs Mike Collins — Jon Ossoff +9.1

3 polls from 2 pollsters · latest: Jon Ossoff 55.4% · Mike Collins 44.6% (Big Data Poll, 2026-09-23)

Governor races (13)

Georgia Governor

Keisha Lance Bottoms vs Rick Jackson — Rick Jackson +1.5

3 polls from 2 pollsters · latest: Rick Jackson 50.5% · Keisha Lance Bottoms 49.5% (Big Data Poll, 2026-09-23)

Florida Governor

David Jolly vs Byron Donalds — Byron Donalds +1.8

4 polls from 3 pollsters · latest: Byron Donalds 46% · David Jolly 48% (Change Research, 2026-09-27)

Texas Governor

Gina Hinojosa vs Greg Abbott — Greg Abbott +2.8

9 polls from 7 pollsters · latest: Greg Abbott 50% · Gina Hinojosa 46% (Slingshot Strategies, 2026-09-22)

Wisconsin Governor

David Crowley vs Tom Tiffany — David Crowley +2.8

6 polls from 4 pollsters · latest: David Crowley 49% · Tom Tiffany 44% (Marquette University Law School, 2026-08-20)

Ohio Governor

Amy Acton vs Vivek Ramaswamy — Amy Acton +4.3

5 polls from 5 pollsters · latest: Amy Acton 50% · Vivek Ramaswamy 44% (Marist University, 2026-09-27)

Arizona Governor

Katie Hobbs vs Andy Biggs — Katie Hobbs +6.8

6 polls from 6 pollsters · latest: Katie Hobbs 39% · Andy Biggs 38% (NextGen Polling, 2026-08-19)

Michigan Governor

Jocelyn Benson vs John James — Jocelyn Benson +7.7

11 polls from 10 pollsters · latest: Jocelyn Benson 47% · John James 44% (co/efficient, 2026-09-23)

Iowa Governor

Rob Sand vs Zach Lahn — Rob Sand +8.8

8 polls from 6 pollsters · latest: Rob Sand 54% · Zach Lahn 42% (Marist University, 2026-09-20)

New Hampshire Governor

Kelly Ayotte vs Cinde Warmington — Kelly Ayotte +10.1

5 polls from 4 pollsters · latest: Kelly Ayotte 52% · Cinde Warmington 41% (The New York Times/Siena University, 2026-09-22)

Maine Governor

Hannah Pingree vs Bobby Charles — Hannah Pingree +11.8

4 polls from 4 pollsters · latest: Hannah Pingree 47% · Bobby Charles 34% (The New York Times/Siena University, 2026-09-22)

New York Governor

Kathy Hochul vs Bruce Blakeman — Kathy Hochul +18.1

3 polls from 3 pollsters · latest: Kathy Hochul 58% · Bruce Blakeman 39% (Quinnipiac University, 2026-09-20)

Pennsylvania Governor

Josh Shapiro vs Stacy Garrity — Josh Shapiro +21.0

5 polls from 3 pollsters · latest: Josh Shapiro 58% · Stacy Garrity 38% (The New York Times/Siena University, 2026-09-22)

California Governor

Xavier Becerra vs Steve Hilton — Xavier Becerra +21.8

4 polls from 3 pollsters · latest: Xavier Becerra 55% · Steve Hilton 33% (SurveyUSA, 2026-09-20)

House battlegrounds (76)

AZ-06 — Toss-up · expert rating, no district polling

CA-22 — Toss-up · expert rating, no district polling

CO-08 — Toss-up · 1 poll, too thin to average

FL-22 — Toss-up · expert rating, no district polling

FL-27 — Toss-up · 1 poll, too thin to average

GA-11 — Toss-up · 1 poll, too thin to average

MI-07 — Toss-up · expert rating, no district polling

MO-02 — Toss-up · 1 poll, too thin to average

MT-01 — Toss-up · 1 poll, too thin to average

NE-01 — Toss-up · 1 poll, too thin to average

NV-02 — Toss-up · 1 poll, too thin to average

OH-09 — Toss-up · 1 poll, too thin to average

PA-08 — Toss-up · expert rating, no district polling

SC-01 — Toss-up · 1 poll, too thin to average

VA-01 — Toss-up · 1 poll, too thin to average

WI-01 — Toss-up · 1 poll, too thin to average

CA-48 — Lean D · 1 poll, too thin to average

NE-02 — Lean D · 1 poll, too thin to average

NH-01 — Lean D · 1 poll, too thin to average

NJ-07 — Lean D · 1 poll, too thin to average

NM-02 — Lean D · 1 poll, too thin to average

NY-18 — Lean D · expert rating, no district polling

PA-07 — Lean D · 1 poll, too thin to average

PA-10 — Lean D · 1 poll, too thin to average

FL-13 — Lean R · expert rating, no district polling

FL-25 — Lean R · expert rating, no district polling

NC-09 — Lean R · 1 poll, too thin to average

NC-14 — Lean R · expert rating, no district polling

NY-21 — Lean R · 1 poll, too thin to average

OH-01 — Lean R · expert rating, no district polling

TN-09 — Lean R · 1 poll, too thin to average

TX-15 — Lean R · expert rating, no district polling

TX-23 — Lean R · expert rating, no district polling

TX-28 — Lean R · expert rating, no district polling

TX-34 — Lean R · expert rating, no district polling

VA-02 — Lean R · expert rating, no district polling

ME-02 — Likely D · 1 poll, too thin to average

NC-01 — Likely D · 1 poll, too thin to average

FL-09 — Likely R · expert rating, no district polling

FL-14 — Likely R · expert rating, no district polling

IA-01 — Likely R · expert rating, no district polling

IA-02 — Likely R · expert rating, no district polling

IA-03 — Likely R · expert rating, no district polling

MN-01 — Likely R · expert rating, no district polling

NC-03 — Likely R · expert rating, no district polling

PA-01 — Likely R · 1 poll, too thin to average

TX-35 — Likely R · expert rating, no district polling

WI-03 — Likely R · expert rating, no district polling

IL-04 — Safe D · expert rating, no district polling

ME-01 — Safe D · 1 poll, too thin to average

MN-02 — Safe D · 1 poll, too thin to average

NH-02 — Safe D · 1 poll, too thin to average

VT-00 — Safe D · 2 polls, too thin to average

AK-00 — Safe R · expert rating, no district polling

AR-02 — Safe R · expert rating, no district polling

AZ-02 — Safe R · expert rating, no district polling

CO-05 — Safe R · expert rating, no district polling

FL-16 — Safe R · expert rating, no district polling

GA-07 — Safe R · expert rating, no district polling

ID-01 — Safe R · expert rating, no district polling

IN-05 — Safe R · expert rating, no district polling

KY-06 — Safe R · expert rating, no district polling

MD-01 — Safe R · expert rating, no district polling

MI-04 — Safe R · expert rating, no district polling

MI-10 — Safe R · expert rating, no district polling

MT-02 — Safe R · 1 poll, too thin to average

NC-07 — Safe R · expert rating, no district polling

NC-10 — Safe R · expert rating, no district polling

NC-11 — Safe R · expert rating, no district polling

OH-07 — Safe R · expert rating, no district polling

OH-15 — Safe R · expert rating, no district polling

SC-07 — Safe R · expert rating, no district polling

TN-05 — Safe R · expert rating, no district polling

VA-05 — Safe R · expert rating, no district polling

WI-06 — Safe R · expert rating, no district polling

NY-17 — Tilt R · expert rating, no district polling

The competitive districts only, not all 435. Ratings via PollingSource (pollingsource.com); we print a PW average only where at least three district polls exist.

Methodology

Each race average pools recent public polling from the listed number of distinct pollsters, weighted toward the most recent field dates. Margins are shown for the leading candidate. Races with no qualifying public polling are listed as awaiting polling rather than estimated. We publish the poll count and pollster count on every race so you can judge how thin or deep the underlying data is.

Presidential approval is read straight from the pollsters: we take each reading from the polling house's own published release and average them ourselves, counting national samples only. State polls report Trump approval among that state's voters, which is a different number and is never mixed in. Nothing is shown until at least three separate houses are in the window. Currently: Emerson College, Marist Poll (NPR/PBS), Quinnipiac University.

Generic congressional ballot polling via PollingSource average (pollingsource.com). Race polling via VoteHub. Averages and weighting are Patriot Watch's own.